唐人电视 www.ntdtv.com 2011-12-17 05:18
US Journal Predicts Unrest in China in 2012
The US journal Foreign Policy recently predicted several
World events in 2012, including political unrest in China.
Echoing these predictions, The Japan Times said that the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is facing similar challenges as those in 1989.
Critics believe upheavals may happen any time in 2012
in China, possibly triggered by real estate and land ownership issues.
The US journal Foreign Policy wrote in an article named
“Next Year, in Review”
about the outspoken criticism of the Chinese regime,
on issues from train wrecks to smog.
With more overt campaigns between factions in the Chinese
regime, and the spread of social media,
China's new leaders should expect to have a more fractious
constituency and a tougher time maintaining central control of the world's emerging superpower.
The Japan Times also wrote that the current crisis faced by
CCP leaders is similar to that of 1989,
such as freedom of press, corruption and nepotism,
and the legality of CCP.
Meanwhile, the CCP is also facing environmental issues,
as well as social security and medical problems, which were not involved in 1989.
The conflict between Chinese people's press for human rights
and the CCP's power is escalating.
A certificated public accountant in Beijing,
Du Yanlin, said that
he is thinking about the possible changes in China in 2012,
but reflects that things in China are hard to predict.
Du Yanlin said: “What we face is a dictatorial power,
which has many uncertain factors.
It might keep growing like the real estate market,
but collapse suddenly.
But I hope future changes can bring less loss and
less social unrest.”
A sociologist residing in Germany, Dr Wang Rongfen,
believed that the conflict between people and the government,
is reflected in the seesaw battle between the CCP's
firewall project and netizens' breaking blockades.
The CCP interest groups' land grabbing will finally trigger
Wang Rongfen said: “In China, land is owned by the country,
which is owned by CCP, while CCP is controlled by only several persons.
It is very unreasonable, but involves everyone's vital interests.
If you buy a house with the right of use for only 70 years
or 40/50 years, then where are you going after that?
China's future unrest will start from real estate,
which involves a basic ownership issue.”
Media around the world have noticed the recent mass protest
against Putin in 60 cities in Russia, a once communist country, with around 30,000 protesters in Moscow.
But the World Journal believed that considering the
current democratic system,
another Tiananmen Incident will not happen in Russia,
nor will Putin become a second Deng Xiaoping.
Du Yanlin pointed out that China and Russia are different
since one is totalitarian while the other is authoritarian.
Despite the personal authority, the Russian system is still democratic,
and Putin cannot decide everything in a large scale.
Putin will not dare to dispatch tanks on Moscow streets.
But the CCP is totalitarian and thus will dare do anything.
The Dongfang Daily highlighted the old Chinese saying;
“people are like water, which can float boats, but can also make them sink.”
Once the huge wave comes, which vessel can hold it?
Trying to maintain stability is just useless.
The “Jasmine Revolution”, which happened in China at the
beginning of this year was a rehearsal for the real play.
The only question is who, and where, will the fire next year be lit,
and what will China's future be after the unrest?
NTD reporters Qin Xue and Guo Jing